Look Forward, Not Back.

 
 
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COVID-19 Research
Preparation for Future Pandemics

What’s Inside
Research Basis
Findings

 

Research Basis

  1. One of the most enduring assessments of military missteps is the admonition that “Soldiers always prepare to fight the last war (instead of the next one).”

  2. The quote originated in a little know article authored by Edward P. Warner, in The American Marketing Journal in 1934.

  3. For centuries, the tactics that won the last war were used to win the next one. All this changed with the American Civil War where new technologies, the rifled barrel, rendered the old tactics inoperable.

  4. The lessons of the Civil War were not fully understood until WWI.

Realities

  1. The threat from C19 will evolve over time, the virus will evolve, and other virus’s will pose new threats. The tactics needed to defeat these threats will also have to evolve. However, the strategies will for the most part remain the same.

 
 
 
 
 
 

Findings

 
 
 
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01 Design to the (latest) data.

COVID-19 Primer: What We Know and What We Don’t Know, Zommer,

  • The tactics that won the last war, will not win the next one.

    • Identify those strategies needed to combat the next Pandemic

    • The issue is that we confuse tactics with strategies.

    • Strategies are more enduring, they elevate planning to a higher level.

  • Strategies to combat a Pandemic remain the same no matter the threat:

    • Isolate

    • If you cannot Isolate, then mitigate, which means controlling the spread through social Isolation.

    • Track and trace the contagion.

    • Search for treatments.

    • Search for vaccines.

    • This isn’t difficult, it only takes commitment and discipline.

 
 
 
 
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02 Participation is Voluntary

  • Uncertainty breeds doubt about outcomes.

    • With strong leadership, doubt can be overcome.

    • Without strong leadership, the only remedy is to make participation in act where a persons exposure to infection is increased needs to be voluntary

  • In a national crisis anxiety increases, the only remedy is strong coherent national leadership.

 
 
 
 
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03 Move people from being unprepared to being agile.

  • In a pandemic, time is not on our side. People are both the potential victims and the potential saviors.

  • Mobilize everyone to be part of the response.

  • Expect the unexpected, be agile in responding to new challenges.